Dr. Fu abstracted his presentation on November 2 as follows: In the study, GCM (GISS/NASA) model outputs are used with a regional climate model (MM5) to supply
the current and future meteorological conditions for an air quality model (CMAQ) and time-varied and layer-varied global model, GOES-Chem. The outputs are used for the initial and boundary conditions of the CMAQ to assess local impacts. The future emissions are projected using the IPCC A1B scenario. Statistical techniques are used to measure the effects of climate change and change of anthropogenic emissions toward 2050.
In the results of CMAQ, we have found that the
area-wide ozone concentration in 2050 may not necessarily be higher than in 2000, but outcomes greatly depend on meteorological differences between year 2000 and 2050. The interactions between temperature, wind speed and precipitation play an important role in determining the air quality effects from global warming and stagnation. It is observed that the daily maximum 8-hr O3 concentration in every domain shows an increasing trend due to the increase of air temperature. However, the occurrence of high O3 concentration depends on the interaction of the meteorological parameters. Our results show only for the mid north of the United States a definite sign of increase in ozone in 2050. Some results also show a discrepancy between global and regional models.
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